The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office has sounded a strategic alarm about the region's financial future, arguing that artificial intelligence is quietly reinforcing global dependence on the US dollar in ways that threaten economic autonomy. Speaking through its economists this week, AMRO warned that as AI reshapes international commerce, the bloc comprising all ten ASEAN member states plus China, Japan and South Korea faces a critical window to act before structural dollar reliance becomes irreversible.
The dynamics at play are subtle but consequential. Commercial decisions made by major AI companies, cloud service providers and international payment networks are organising themselves around dollar-denominated systems almost by default. This creates what AMRO describes as a self-reinforcing loop—the more transactions flow through dollar channels, the more those channels become the natural infrastructure for new digital services. Unlike previous eras when currencies competed on the basis of trade volumes or political influence, artificial intelligence is cementing dollar dominance through sheer technological convenience and network effects.
Yet AMRO's analysis offers a degree of optimism. While the region cannot entirely prevent this dollar-centric ecosystem from solidifying, it can deliberately architect alternatives that reduce vulnerability. The research office proposes a comprehensive, three-pronged regional strategy that treats energy, AI infrastructure and payment systems not as separate policy domains but as interdependent components of digital sovereignty. This integrated approach acknowledges a hard reality: you cannot develop cutting-edge AI capabilities without reliable, affordable electricity; you cannot build local payment networks without the computational power to process transactions; and you cannot escape dollar dependence without all three elements working in concert.
The energy dimension deserves particular attention from Malaysian policymakers and those across Southeast Asia. AMRO recommends that ASEAN+3 governments coordinate to expand data centre capacity within the region, powered by both conventional and increasingly renewable energy sources. Currently, much of the region's computational work occurs overseas, meaning not only do regional economies lack the jobs and tax revenue from data centre operations, but they also remain geographically dependent on foreign infrastructure that typically settles in dollars. By shifting data centre investment inward, the bloc creates employment, builds technological expertise and establishes sovereign control over critical digital infrastructure.
The artificial intelligence component extends beyond mere data processing. Regional governments should view AI development as a strategic priority comparable to traditional heavy industry. This means supporting research institutions, fostering venture capital ecosystems and removing regulatory barriers that prevent homegrown AI companies from scaling. The goal is not isolation from global AI progress but rather ensuring that the region participates as a creator and innovator rather than merely a consumer of foreign-developed systems. When AI capabilities reside locally, transactions and decisions involving those systems can remain within regional financial infrastructure.
Perhaps most immediately actionable is AMRO's recommendation regarding digital payment systems. The office specifically advocates for developing local-currency tokenised payment networks that can support what it terms agentic commerce—transactions conducted by artificial intelligence systems on behalf of users or businesses. This is where Malaysia and other ASEAN members could establish real differentiation. Rather than allowing AI-driven commerce to flow through existing dollar-based platforms like those operated by major technology companies, regional payment networks denominated in ringgit, baht, peso or other local currencies would give businesses genuine alternatives.
The regulatory dimension adds crucial nuance. AMRO emphasises that these alternative payment systems must preserve regulatory oversight, allowing authorities to monitor transactions, prevent illicit activity and maintain monetary policy transmission. This distinguishes the proposed approach from cryptocurrency-based alternatives, which often sacrifice regulatory visibility. A sophisticated digital payment system anchored in local currency but built on modern tokenisation technology could offer the innovation and efficiency of blockchain-based systems while retaining the control mechanisms governments require.
The implications for Malaysia are particularly significant given the country's position as a financial centre with growing technology ambitions. Kuala Lumpur could position itself as a hub for ASEAN+3 digital payments infrastructure, just as Singapore serves financial markets more broadly. Malaysian banks and fintech firms have the technical capabilities to build regional payment systems, while the government has demonstrated willingness to support financial innovation through frameworks like the Islamic financial technology ecosystem. Energy-rich nations within ASEAN like Indonesia could anchor regional data centre development, creating a virtuous cycle where energy abundance drives digital infrastructure investment, which attracts AI companies and talent.
The timing dimension cannot be overlooked. AMRO's analysis suggests that the window for establishing alternatives is narrowing as global AI deployment accelerates. Every month that passes without coordinated regional action allows dollar-based infrastructure to entrench itself further through network effects and incumbent advantage. A company choosing where to locate computational resources or settle transactions faces powerful incentives to use existing platforms; reversing those choices later becomes exponentially harder.
Implementation challenges remain substantial. Coordinating policy across twelve economies with varying development levels, political systems and strategic interests presents obvious difficulties. National governments must balance regional cooperation against domestic priorities and bilateral relationships with major powers. Yet AMRO's framing offers a constructive pathway: these are not zero-sum competitions but mutual gains that make every economy in the bloc more competitive against global rivals.
The think tank's argument ultimately rests on a forward-looking insight about how power flows in a digital economy. Military strength and trade surplus no longer exclusively determine geopolitical influence; control over critical digital infrastructure increasingly does. By proactively building regional alternatives to dollar-dependent systems, ASEAN+3 economies could preserve monetary autonomy, strengthen their negotiating position with major powers and create genuine prosperity from the digital transformation underway.
